Gap Alya model: income and spending

Each month, we calculate what comes in and what goes out; the difference is the month's balance.

The balances are added up from arrival. As long as income does not cover spending, this cumulative balance falls; it rises again when the salaries come in. Its lowest point is the money you need to have in hand at the start.

Step 1: the levels to compare. Skill by skill (speaking, reading, writing), the candidate's level is compared with the level the occupation requires, on the same scale from 1 to 5: 1 none, 2 a few words, 3 simple, 4 professional, 5 fluent.

Step 2: two relaxations. In some occupations, AI tools (translation, drafting) make up for part of the written work: the reading and writing requirement then drops by one level. In others, English can replace Hebrew for speaking: if the candidate speaks English well, the speaking requirement is capped at 2 (a few words).

Step 3: the gap. The language gap G is the largest shortfall found across the three skills. A candidate who exceeds the requirement everywhere has a gap of zero.

Consequence of the gap. Depending on the gap and the time the candidate will devote to Hebrew, hiring is delayed (this delay is written ) or the engine switches to the fallback occupation.

How many months does it take, once on the job market, to be hired? We start from a base delay specific to the occupation's class, then add or subtract a few months depending on the candidate's situation.

In which month after arrival does the salary start? This depends on when the candidate is available and when they start looking. An offer already signed replaces the whole calculation; a professional licence sets an earliest date.

Where to sit in the occupation's range? Each occupation has two full-time gross salary ranges: on starting the job, then once settled. A coefficient q between 0 and 1 places the candidate in each range: 0 at the bottom, 1 at the top, 0.5 in the middle.

The seniority coefficient. Seniority places the candidate in both ranges: a senior at the top, an experienced candidate in the middle, a junior at the bottom. The same coefficient is used on starting the job and once settled: the gap between the two ranges represents the pay rise, and the less qualified first job is represented by the interim job (section 5).

Special cases: fallback occupation, capped at 0.5; cautious versions Low income and Stress test, 0 for both ranges; the entry salary never exceeds the stable salary; a signed offer replaces the entry salary.

The salary ramp-up. The salary starts at in the month of hiring and reaches in a straight line over 24 months, then stays flat. The whole is multiplied by the working time (FTE).

While waiting for a job in one's occupation, one works. Studies of the Aliyah from the former USSR show that almost all olim quickly find a first job (80% of men by month 6, 90% by month 10), but rarely in their own occupation (about 12% of graduates in a skilled job after one year, 37% after five years). The engine therefore uses two stages: an interim job, the fallback occupation paid within its entry range according to the candidate's seniority, capped at the middle, then the target occupation from month .

And if the occupation is never regained? In the studies, a large share of graduate olim still have not found a skilled job after five years. For information, the diagnostic therefore calculates the 5-year coverage of the Low income test if each adult stays in their interim job (their pay reaching the bottom of the fallback's stable range over 24 months). This figure counts neither in the amount to be financed nor in loan eligibility.

Net pay is gross pay minus three deductions: income tax, Bituah Leumi (national insurance and health tax) and the employee's pension contribution.

Income tax is worked out in two steps. First the progressive tax scale is applied to taxable income. Then tax credits are subtracted: each “credit point” is worth 242 ₪ per month, and the pension contribution gives an additional credit. Tax cannot be negative.

Bituah Leumi and pension are proportional to gross pay. Bituah Leumi has a reduced rate up to 7,703 ₪, a full rate above that, and stops at 51,910 ₪.

Self-employment. The applicant gives their expected turnover at a few dates (at the start, then at 6, 12 and 24 months). The engine draws a straight line between these points, applies a haircut that depends on the share of turnover already secured, then subtracts costs. The haircut applies to turnover, not to profit: costs remain payable in full.

Positive profit, after tax, is added to household income. A loss, and the initial investment (Q43, Q44A), make up a business cash requirement computed separately. A new business starts in the stated month (Q39), 3 months later in the Delay and Stress tests.

Illustrative example: expected turnover 20,000 ₪, 25 to 49% secured (h = 0.85 in the Central test), 10% variable costs, 3,000 ₪ fixed costs: ₪ profit before tax; ₪ in the Low income test.

Income kept abroad (remote-work salary, foreign clients…). It is converted into shekels. The cautious versions cut it by 25% and assume an exchange rate 10% less favourable; the Delay test stops it twice as early as planned.

At month 60, only lasting foreign income counts, and only half of it (all of it if the status, taxation, social security and contract are documented).

Benefits. The Sal Klita (absorption basket) is paid in the month of arrival and then for 6 months, according to household composition. Child allowances are paid for each child under 18, according to birth order.

Rent assistance for olim. For an Aliyah on or after 1 March 2024, the assistance is paid with no means test and no lease required, for 24 months (from month 7 to month 30), at a fixed amount; it is higher in the North, Haifa, South and Judea-Samaria districts. It counts in transition cash flow, not at month 60.

Cities with the higher amount in the model: Ashdod, Ashkelon, Haifa, Be'er Sheva, Sderot, Netivot. Higher amounts published for 2024-2025, to be confirmed for 2026. The former scheme (Aliyah before March 2024, tapering over 5 years) is not modelled.

Retirees. An oleh who has reached retirement age (67 for a man, about 63 for a woman, depending on year of birth) receives the basic old-age pension from Bituah Leumi; if they arrived after age 60-62, it is a special benefit of the same amount. An income supplement guarantees the household a minimum; it is reduced by other pensions above a threshold and withdrawn if savings exceed a cap. The Sal Klita has specific amounts for retirees.

Monthly spending is the sum of seven blocks. Only two of them come from national averages; the others are computed for the city and the family.

Arnona is computed from the municipal rate per square metre, for a 100 m² home taken to be a 4-room flat, then in proportion to the number of rooms.

Olim get a 90% reduction on the first 100 m² for 12 months: the engine applies it to months 0 to 11 (cash flow), not at month 60.

Set-up is a one-off expense in the month of arrival, made of five items. Shipping belongings depends on the chosen moving method (question QA9); if belongings arrive by container, most household appliances do too.

Large families. The CBS average for “6 people or more” is barely higher than that for 5-person households, because very large families are on average less well off. So as not to underestimate their spending, the engine starts from the 5-person household and adds, item by item, the gap observed between 4 and 5 people for each additional person.

The CBS figures date from 2023; they are uprated for inflation up to 2026. A few sub-items are published only for a 4-person household: they are adjusted to household size in the same proportion as their category.

Each child costs according to their age that month, counted in months. Two costs depend on the parents' employment: daycare is subsidised, and tsaharon (afternoon care) is needed, only if all the adults in the household work that month.

A child looked after at home by a parent (Q9) has no daycare costs.

Cash requirement. This is the money needed at the start so that the cumulative balance never falls below zero during the first 36 months.

If the cumulative balance is still at its lowest in month 35, or if the household does not cover its spending in month 60, the gap does not close: the engine shows “structural deficit” rather than an amount.

Coverage in month 60. Once the transition is over, does lasting income cover spending? It is calculated without any oleh benefits (normal tax, no Sal Klita), counting only half of any undocumented lasting foreign income.

Financing. The amount to finance is the larger of the requirements of the two cautious sizing versions. Mobilised savings are deducted from it; in the check-up's scenario, the rest can be covered by capped interest-free financing. This scenario is indicative: it is not a loan offer.